I've never been one to forget the past, quite honestly I love to dwell in the past (I suppose that would explain my history major). So I would like to explain why for this weekend, I am going to focus on why the past means nothing. Of course to do this, I will have to explain the importance of the Week 14 match up.
Week 14: Denver 34 - Ravens 17
The most obvious stat that jumps out at everyone from this game is the final score, Denver doubled up on the Ravens. However certain things to get lost in simply looking at the final score. Every fan who watched the game remembers Joe Flacco's untimely pick-six right before half time. However few people remember what happened in the 2nd half. After half time, the two teams tied, each scoring 17 points. This left many people wondering "what if." What if Flacco hadn't thrown the interception. What if Flacco had thrown a touchdown. What if the Ravens hadn't started the game so slowly.
With the final score line showing a dominating Broncos performance, many people never bothered to really examine the games stats. The Raven's defense held Manning to 204 yards, nearly 100 fewer yards than his season average, and his lowest total of the season. Flacco threw for more yards, and more touchdowns than Manning. In all aspects except the impossibly complicated QBR, Flacco out preformed Manning.
Many analysts look at Peyton Manning, and a 11 game win streak, and dismiss the Ravens without a second look. However that 9 game win streak does lack some legitimacy. In those 11 games, the Broncos only played 2 playoff teams, the Ravens, and the Bengals. They played 5 playoff teams, and lost to 3 of them.
"New" Faces
Another critical statistic, the players on the field. Of the 6 leading tacklers for the Ravens, only 1 was a Week 1 starter (Cary Williams). The starting Middle Line Backers, Josh Bynes and Brandon Ayanbedejo. Meaning Ellerbe and Lewis were on the sideline, both of whom will be playing this weekend. Lewis provides leadership and knowledge that surpass any Raven, and arguably any active defensive player. Ellerbe provides experience at the position and a much needed pass rush.
Also missing from the Week 14 line-up, pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda and the local star of Bernard Pollard. Starting with Pollard, he provides a better run stopper (something they struggled with in week 14) and a greater "middle-of-the-field" presence.
Second is Marshall Yanda. Yanda is a two time pro bowler, and the Raven's best lineman. But his presence is not the only offensive difference, not even the only offensive line difference. The line has been adjusted consistently over the past several games. Finally leading to a line that allowed only 1 sack to a Colts defense that prides itself on their pass rush, mainly from the quitted Freeney and Mathis. Freeney couldn't even notch a tackle in the game. The offense was under first time coordinator Jim Caldwell. Caldwell now has a few games experience, and has added consistency to a struggling offense.
Key Roles
The Broncos, Ravens game on Saturday will be a hard fought game. Two strong, battle tested defenses, two high flying quarterbacks, and two run games that are much improved from earlier this season.
Running Back Bernard Pierce played in the first game, but his "break-out" came one week later. Line Backer Paul Kruger played in the first game, but his "break-out" came one week later. Tight End Dennis Pitta played in that first game, but his "break-out" came in the 4th quarter.
Meaning
Many Baltimore fans are focusing on the 34-17 defeat, and saying the Ravens have no chance of winning the rematch. However they forget, Peyton historically struggles with three things, a pass rush, cold weather, and a bye-week. Peyton is 1-7 in games played outdoors with the temperature below 25 degrees. The forecast for Saturday predicts 18 degree weather. Peyton has always struggled with a bye week, or getting rest in the final week of the year, having only one 1 playoff game following a week of rest in 5 attempts. And aging, surgically repaired, Peyton Manning, is not physically capable of out running my grandma, much less new found pass rushers Kruger and Ellerbe, much less the hitting ability of Suggs, Nagta, Pollard, Ihedigbo.
Baltimore has a chance to shock the world this week, much like they did in 2000, winning a Super Bowl in the franchises first ever playoff appearance.
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