Earlier today, it was announced that WR Anquan Boldin will be traded to the 49er's for a 6th round pick. Rapid reactions out of Baltimore fans basically ridiculed Ozzie and the Raven's organization for allowing such a trade to occur, and at first, their arguments seem logical. Boldin was coming off of a great season, with an historical playoff run ending with a Super Bowl victory.
Boldin has played for the Raven's for the past 3 years, and quickly became a fan favorite by playing a very Raven-like style of football (tough, work every down, never give up). In his three seasons, Boldin only missed 3 games. He caught 186 passes, for 2,654 yards and 14 touchdowns. Including the post season you can add on another 38 receptions, another 616 yards and 6 touchdowns. He quickly became Flacco's go-to-reciever in critical situations, and notched a majority of his receptions in the 4th quarter, or clutch scenario's.
Given these stats, and the all around love of Boldin with in the organization, this trade, at first glance, does not sit well with many people. However if you look at the team as a whole, the younger players, and Baltimore's history, the trade could have been expected. The Raven's were sitting with 12 million in cap space, with the desire to retain young talent, and a 32 year old receiver, with one year left on his contract, and a 6 million dollar cap number. The Raven's reportedly asked Boldin to take a pay cut, which he declined. With contract negotiations at a stand-still, impending free-agency starting in several hours, and the desire to keep the young core together, a move needed to be made.
The Raven's had several options:
Cut Boldin, save 6 million dollars on the cap, and use that to sign the likes of Ellerbe/Kruger/Pitta.
Trade Boldin for an early round draft pick, retain the 6 million dollar cap hit, and potentially lose all free-agents.
Or, they could trade Boldin for a late round pick, dump the salary, and have more room to negotiate with Ellerbe/Kruger/Pitta.
Losing Boldin is tough to stomach for many fans, but in the long run, it really was the best option. Boldin is an aging player, with a 1 year contract and a huge salary cap number. It would have been hard to find a team willing to pay that high of a salary while only being guaranteed one year of service, and to give up anything higher than a 6th round pick. In the past, General Manager Ozzie Newsome, and the Raven's organization have done well in the later stages of the draft.
The Ravens will look for TE Pitta to take over as Flacco's go to guy on the inside, and they will put the burden on WR Doss to take over with strong hands on the outside. This trade is hard to stomach, but the move makes sense for the Raven's long term plans.
The time we have all been waiting for, we are now within 24 hours of Super Bowl XLVII. The Game will feature two "identical" teams, with one goal in mind; becoming world champions.
"Twin" Teams
Much has been made about what makes the 49ers and the Ravens such similar teams. The two teams are built the exact same way. The defenses are eerily similar, each team boasts a stout defensive line, pro-bowl linebackers, underrated defensive backs, and hard hitting safeties. The offenses have completely different styles, but the same mindset. The quarterbacks are both young guys, playing in their first super bowl. Flacco has a big arm, and a knack for the deep ball; meanwhile Kaepernick is a home run style quarterback, whether its with a powerful arm or if he tucks and runs. Both teams have O-lines playing the best they have all season, solid 1-2 punches at running back, more than capable tight ends, and a plethora of receiver options. Both teams have hard hitting defenses, and offenses with new found firepower. It is no surprise that the teams are so similar, the coaches are brothers, with a father as their football mentor.
What to Expect
I expect this to be a hard fought close game at times, but I don't think the final score will reveal the true story. I think both offenses will come out hot, and that the Ravens will take a quarter or so to heat up on defense. Ray Lewis will lead the Ravens defense against the read-option, pistol style offense, and the defense will ultimately play smarter and more disciplined than the 49ers previous two opponents. Ray Lewis has a knack for confusing young quarterbacks, and I expect that trend to continue.
The 49ers offensive line is very very good, arguably the best in the league, but if the Ravens defense plays the way it has all post-season, I expect them to wear out the 49ers offense. Tom Brady and the Patriots got tired of being hit, plan and simple. Kaepernick, like Brady, has managed to stay clean all season, rarely being hit, much less sacked. If the Raven's defense can contain Kaep, and get him on the turf, his will to take a hit will diminish quickly, and from then on the Raven's will pile on the points.
I have not made a solid, strong prediction yet, and I personally don't plan to. This game could be a 13-6 game just like last year, it could be 38-35 just like the Raven's divisional match, or what I think is most likely, 28-17. I think both teams will be in it until the end, and then which ever team is in need of a touchdown will commit a fate sealing turnover. Personally I hope that The 49ers are the ones to commit that turnover, Kaepernick throwing directly to Ray Lewis for a game ending pick-six, sending Ray off into the sunset, Lombardi Trophy held high and proud.
According to NFL Network, ESPN, and the Raven's official website, New Orleans has been painted purple and black. Yes there is a strong 49ers presence, but it is estimated that Raven Nation is outnumbering the 49ers fans 3-1. I know that, if given the opportunity, Raven Nation will serenade New Orleans with a strong Seven Nation Army chant.
GO RAVENS!! and Thank You Ray for 17 amazing years.
As many of you know, last Sunday the Baltimore Ravens exorcized yet another demon. In a post season that seemed rigged to send Baltimore home empty handed, the Raven's prevailed. In the Wild Card round, the Raven's were up against the Colts, a team that they were 3-9 against, and 0-2 in the post season. After finally beating the Colts in the post season, the Raven's had to face Peyton Manning, the long time quarterback of those same Colts. The Raven's were only 1-8 against Peyton leading up to the Divisional Round, in which they were 9.5 underdogs in the below freezing altitude of Mile High Stadium. But as we all know, last second heroics placed the Raven's back in the AFC Championship game. So in a post season of demons, the obvious next step would be to place the Ravens back in New England, where the ghosts of Lee Evans and Billy Cundiff are all to close in memory. The Raven's had to play against the inspired young Colts, the physical Broncos, and the mind of Bellichick and Brady; but this Ray Lewis driven team, would not go down without a fight.
On Sunday, the Raven's took on Brady and the Patriots. The game started slow, with both teams looking more like a Raven's v Steeler's defensive matchup than the high-flying style the Foxborough fans were accustomed to. But the second half brought the scoreboard back to life, in a way that stunned that very same Foxborough crowd.
The game started slow, with both teams punting on their first drives. But then life came when the Patriots methodically down the field, but were ultimately held to a 31 yard field goal. After each team had several more series and several more punts, the quarter ended with The Patriots up 3-0.
The Raven's came out hot in the 2nd quarter, scoring on their first drive. The Raven's capped off a 90 yard drive with a Ray Rice touchdown. Ray was able to bounce off three tacklers on his way to the end zone for a 2 yard touchdown, putting the Ravens ahead 7-3. The Patriots quickly responded with a touchdown drive of their own, to regain the lead at 10-7. The drive was capped by a 1 yard touchdown pass to Wes Welker on a coverage miscommunication between Chykie Brown and Corey Graham. After forcing a three and out, the Patriots increased their lead by kicking a 25 yard field goal to end the half with a 13-7 lead, and all of the momentum.
As the Second half began, it appeared to be a continuation of the same tide, each team was forced to punt on their first possession of the half. With 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the tide of the game shifted once again, and there was no looking back. The Ravens scored 3 unanswered touchdowns, while forcing 3 turnovers to secure a 28-13 victory, sending them to the SuperBowl.
The Ravens overcame being 9.5 point underdogs in two consecutive games, the first time that has happened in NFL history. They also got past two future HOF quarterbacks, a HOF coach, and a young team on the rise.
Does the League Hate the Ravens? Or is it Just Las Vegas.
You could make the valid case that the odds makers in Las Vegas simply just don't like the Ravens. Being a 9.5 point underdog to the Broncos is understandable, but still slightly over-the-top, especially considering the beat down they had just put on the Colts. But then to disgrace them by being 9.5 point underdogs again against the Patriots is absurd. The Ravens lost by 3 points a year ago, and won by 1 point this year when playing the Patriots, so how could Vegas assume they would lose by more than a touchdown, especially when you factor in the victory of the Broncos.
But lets keep in mind that it is not only Vegas, but the League, the Refs, and the analysts that hate the Raven's as well. The NFL is a business, and like any good business, they were hoping for the best possible story line each week. Which for them would leave them rooting for a Peyton vs Brady AFC Championship Game. But ultimately in the Super Bowl they got their wish of having the first ever siblings coach against each other in any major sporting championship. So why do I say that the League hates the Ravens? It would be because Roger Godell has made a point of making a point out of the Ravens. Time and again he chooses Ravens players as targets to make his point for increases player safety, while ignoring the safety of Ravens players.
Not to worry, the Refs also seem to be on the side of the League. Not only was Tom Brady not penalized for his obvious attempt at kicking Ed Reed in the 2nd quarter, but the refs seemingly did everything they could to get the Patriots back in the game in the 2nd half. Early in the 2nd half, hard hitting safety Bernard Pollard was flagged for hitting a defenseless receiver in the head and neck area. The penalty was justified, as Pollards hit was slightly high, however the argument could be made that the receiver ducked into the hit. My complaints really start with the missed call against Dennis Pitta. In the middle of the 3rd quarter, Pitta caught a 5 yard crossing pattern pass from Flacco, and was promptly hit by inside linebacker Jarod Mayo. As shown below, "Mayo (B2) launched and hit Pitta (A2) in the head with; the crown of his helmet, facemask to facemask, his shoulder, or his forearm."As the rulebook clearly states, this would be an illegal hit on a defenseless receiver, warranting a 15 yard penalty, or in this case, half the distance to the goal. For those who would like to take a look, a video of the hit is placed below. I understand that in this case, the penalty would not have changed the outcome of the play, and the drive ended with a touchdown on the next play anyway, but consistency from the refs is a must if the league wants to continue to claim that player safety is of utmost importance.
Ok, maybe you don't buy my belief that the League and the refs hate the Ravens, but how about the analysts. Yes, the ESPN, FOX Sports, CBS Sports and NFL Network analysts. I believe that the analysts hate the Ravens, with few exceptions, like beloved NFL Countdown anchor, Chris Berman. When the Raven's went to Denver, only 4 of 36 analysts picked the Ravens. A week later, when playing the Patriots, only 13 of 53 analysts from these networks picked the Ravens to win. Of course, I will mention the fact that only 4 of 29 analysts picked the Colts to win in the Wild Card match up. But other than the one game in which the Raven's were favored, most analysts picked against the Ravens, some even going above and beyond, as mentioned in last week's blog.
Super Bowl Showdown
You don't have to be a Raven's or a 49ers fan to understand that importance of this match up, not even a football fan or a sports fan... national media is all over the "Harbowl". Brothers John (Ravens) and Jim (49ers) will coach against each other for the games biggest prize. Which ever brother wins, it will be their first Super Bowl victory, and the first for their respective franchises in over a decade. Which ever brother loses, it will be that franchises first loss in the big game, as both teams are a combined 6-0 when making it to the Super Bowl.
But this game as many more headlines than just the sibling rivalry. Ray Lewis will be playing in his last NFL football game. For the past few weeks we have been wondering which game will be his last, but now we now, number 52, making his last ride, has made it to the big dance once again. His career will end on Feb. 3rd, whether the Ravens win or lose. But this is not only a big game for Ray. Veterans Ngata, Reed, Birk, Suggs, and Pollard will all be making their first Super Bowl appearance late in their careers. The often criticized Joe Flacco will be making his first Super Bowl appearance, 5 years into his career (keep in mind, the obviously Elite QB Peyton Manning didn't make it until his 8 year in the league).
In a league most recently dominated by high powered offenses, the two teams playing in the Super Bowl are defense driven teams, with "unproven" offenses. The defenses have both been a top story during the playoffs, and each offense has been a surprise leading up to the Super Bowl.
Last Thanksgiving Won't Matter
If you remember, last Thanksgiving featured the first Harbaugh brothers showdown, but unlike the Denver game, their are very few ways in which you can compare last seasons meeting with the upcoming Super Bowl.
Last years game featured the newly revived Alex Smith, this year, the 49ers QB position was controversially switched to Kaepernick, who will be making just his 10th career start, but waisted no time impressing the league. A few other players will be in different roles than they were last year. Ray Lewis was sidelined for last years meeting, but now he is healthy, and playing for the last time. You can rest easy knowing that Ray Lewis will be playing with passion, intensity, and a will to win that may not be surmountable for the 49ers. Terrell Suggs was an impact player last year, and put in a performance that may have solidified his position of DPOY. This year, Kruger is the primary pass rusher, with Suggs quietly getting pressure.
Last Year, each team was just shy of a Super Bowl birth, each team was let down by special teams. The 49ers fumbled a punt, leading the a Giants recovery, and it ultimately lead to the Giants winning the game. And the Ravens were let down by a botched field goal, which would have forced overtime against the Patriots. This year, the 49ers are plagued by kicking questions, while Ravens rookie Justin Tucker has been as consistent as they come. Each team has sured up their return game, with Pro-bowl quality return men.
This game will be nothing short of extraordinary, each team has a legitimate chance to win.
This screen shot is from ESPN's TV Personality, most known for his radio show, and for being the lead anchor on the often comical Sports Nation, Colin Cowherd. His quote may be all I need as a proper title. The Ravens were a 9.5 point underdog going into Denver. Very, very few analysts gave the Ravens any shot at all at beating Peyton Manning and the Broncos. However, I will admit, I was nervous about the Denver game, as many fans were. The stats seemed to speak for themselves: the Broncos had won 11 straight; Manning was 8-1 against Ray Lewis and the Ravens; Flacco had never been consistent on the road; and of course the 34-17 loss in week 14. But the Raven's overcame all of the nay sayers to beat the Broncos in double overtime, 38-35. Surely taking down future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning would get the Ravens some national respect, wouldn't it? Simple answer... NO.
As shown above, national media still doubts the Ravens ability. Cowherd says the "patriots are a machine right now," leaving the Raven's with no chance of winning. But didn't Cowherd learn from anything his ESPN college? ESPN reporter Ashley Fox became a well known figure in Baltimore last week when ESPN published a picture of Ray Lewis with the caption "Thanks for all of the Memories, because Sunday was your last NFL Win." This was in reference to the 24-9 Raven's victory over the inspired Colts. Ashley Fox did not stop at disrespecting Ray Lewis, she furthered her statement by comparing Peyton Manning to a Mac Book, a machine. She said that the Raven's would have to take a "hammer to the screen" or "pour beer on the keyboard" of this Mac Book to win. Bu the Raven's did win, by out playing the Broncos on offense, and containing Peyton Manning long enough to force a "hardware malfunction." So if the Raven's just outplayed one machine, why does Colin Cowherd think they won't out play another.
I do understand that the Patriots are playing with 'machine-like' characteristics. Tom Brady threw for 344 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The Patriots team totaled 457 yards, and scored 41 points. Make no mistake, those are impressive numbers. However, those impressive numbers are extremely similar to the Ravens numbers on Saturday. Flacco threw for just 13 fewer yards; he threw for just as many touchdowns, the Ravens totaled 22 more yards than the Patriots, and came up with just 3 fewer points. So if the Patriots are a machine on offense what does that make the Ravens? How can you say that one team is a machine and the other is not?
Looking Forward
The Raven's will travel to New England on Sunday to play the Patriots for the chance to go to the Super Bowl. Not only is this a week 3 rematch, but it is an AFC Championship game rematch from last season.
In Week 3 and in last years AFC Championship Game, Flacco has simply out-dueled Tom Brady. Not only has Flacco been on fire, the Raven's defense has been stout against Brady.
Many analysts on ESPN, and many fans are concerned about the high flying offense that Brady brings. If you watched the Patriots - Texans game on Sunday, you saw that much of their game plan relied on getting the ball deep to Lloyd. Cary Williams is expected to be matched up against Lloyd, and many analysts are marking this as the key match up. However these same analysts are forgetting about what Cary just did up against another deep threat in Decker. Decker was allowed catches in tight coverage, but nothing over the top, and nothing deep. For the most part Cary shut down the deep threat, and is expected to do the same Sunday. They are also listing the match up between the O-line and Wilfork as a key match up. However in the last two match-ups, Wilfork had only 1 sack, and 7 total tackles. Wilfork was also kept quiet in the run game, see how the Raven's were able to rush for over 100 yards in each game, and that was before the break out of Pierce, and the vastly improved O-line play.
The nay-sayers are once again standing loud against the Ravens, few giving them any chance at all. Yet they forget the Week 3 victory, and the Raven's stunning victory of the Broncos. I assure you that this weekend will once again prove that analysts clearly know nothing, which is why, as Chris Berman always says, "that's why we play the game."
I've never been one to forget the past, quite honestly I love to dwell in the past (I suppose that would explain my history major). So I would like to explain why for this weekend, I am going to focus on why the past means nothing. Of course to do this, I will have to explain the importance of the Week 14 match up.
Week 14: Denver 34 - Ravens 17
The most obvious stat that jumps out at everyone from this game is the final score, Denver doubled up on the Ravens. However certain things to get lost in simply looking at the final score. Every fan who watched the game remembers Joe Flacco's untimely pick-six right before half time. However few people remember what happened in the 2nd half. After half time, the two teams tied, each scoring 17 points. This left many people wondering "what if." What if Flacco hadn't thrown the interception. What if Flacco had thrown a touchdown. What if the Ravens hadn't started the game so slowly.
With the final score line showing a dominating Broncos performance, many people never bothered to really examine the games stats. The Raven's defense held Manning to 204 yards, nearly 100 fewer yards than his season average, and his lowest total of the season. Flacco threw for more yards, and more touchdowns than Manning. In all aspects except the impossibly complicated QBR, Flacco out preformed Manning.
Many analysts look at Peyton Manning, and a 11 game win streak, and dismiss the Ravens without a second look. However that 9 game win streak does lack some legitimacy. In those 11 games, the Broncos only played 2 playoff teams, the Ravens, and the Bengals. They played 5 playoff teams, and lost to 3 of them. "New" Faces
Another critical statistic, the players on the field. Of the 6 leading tacklers for the Ravens, only 1 was a Week 1 starter (Cary Williams). The starting Middle Line Backers, Josh Bynes and Brandon Ayanbedejo. Meaning Ellerbe and Lewis were on the sideline, both of whom will be playing this weekend. Lewis provides leadership and knowledge that surpass any Raven, and arguably any active defensive player. Ellerbe provides experience at the position and a much needed pass rush.
Also missing from the Week 14 line-up, pro bowl guard Marshall Yanda and the local star of Bernard Pollard. Starting with Pollard, he provides a better run stopper (something they struggled with in week 14) and a greater "middle-of-the-field" presence.
Second is Marshall Yanda. Yanda is a two time pro bowler, and the Raven's best lineman. But his presence is not the only offensive difference, not even the only offensive line difference. The line has been adjusted consistently over the past several games. Finally leading to a line that allowed only 1 sack to a Colts defense that prides itself on their pass rush, mainly from the quitted Freeney and Mathis. Freeney couldn't even notch a tackle in the game. The offense was under first time coordinator Jim Caldwell. Caldwell now has a few games experience, and has added consistency to a struggling offense.
Key Roles
The Broncos, Ravens game on Saturday will be a hard fought game. Two strong, battle tested defenses, two high flying quarterbacks, and two run games that are much improved from earlier this season.
Running Back Bernard Pierce played in the first game, but his "break-out" came one week later. Line Backer Paul Kruger played in the first game, but his "break-out" came one week later. Tight End Dennis Pitta played in that first game, but his "break-out" came in the 4th quarter.
Meaning
Many Baltimore fans are focusing on the 34-17 defeat, and saying the Ravens have no chance of winning the rematch. However they forget, Peyton historically struggles with three things, a pass rush, cold weather, and a bye-week. Peyton is 1-7 in games played outdoors with the temperature below 25 degrees. The forecast for Saturday predicts 18 degree weather. Peyton has always struggled with a bye week, or getting rest in the final week of the year, having only one 1 playoff game following a week of rest in 5 attempts. And aging, surgically repaired, Peyton Manning, is not physically capable of out running my grandma, much less new found pass rushers Kruger and Ellerbe, much less the hitting ability of Suggs, Nagta, Pollard, Ihedigbo.
Baltimore has a chance to shock the world this week, much like they did in 2000, winning a Super Bowl in the franchises first ever playoff appearance.
